Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 9.629428 11.053027 12.585406 14.353972 16.335158 18.482346 20.981718
2025-12-07 7.638055 9.588855 11.851159 14.653908 18.017131 21.906481 26.726846
2025-12-14 6.424266 8.553480 11.145149 14.504602 18.713712 23.780291 30.304055
2025-12-21 5.276449 7.426610 10.165250 13.867039 18.691664 24.713092 32.735290
2025-12-28 4.788530 7.056181 10.053877 14.245691 19.884438 27.126845 37.037939
2026-01-04 4.343611 6.680583 9.878323 14.491458 20.878067 29.296220 41.096254
2026-01-11 3.861830 6.191339 9.486569 14.383958 21.351234 30.760784 44.249156
2026-01-18 3.443215 5.744238 9.103856 14.239265 21.733854 32.086951 47.238015
2026-01-25 3.124044 5.410266 8.848460 14.242651 22.301665 33.666656 50.613808
2026-02-01 2.873932 5.156054 8.684799 14.357181 23.017841 35.465505 54.348873
2026-02-08 2.606894 4.845786 8.405109 14.266086 23.408058 36.794050 57.443580
2026-02-15 2.363863 4.549771 8.120375 14.138869 23.721918 38.005887 60.395006
2026-02-22 2.185717 4.351779 7.983968 14.245148 24.412522 39.825755 64.351723
2026-03-01 2.078115 4.268092 8.029346 14.646257 25.583406 42.416820 69.565532
2026-03-08 1.880709 3.999334 7.736343 14.460253 25.793004 43.527022 72.550715
2026-03-15 1.635922 3.614915 7.209267 13.837073 25.246062 43.421076 73.637668
2026-03-22 1.564294 3.558033 7.259424 14.210354 26.363864 45.981201 78.973739
2026-03-29 1.480479 3.468004 7.240761 14.457287 27.274332 48.236159 83.896502
2026-04-05 1.357613 3.284972 7.033687 14.349403 27.564969 49.486929 87.243250
2026-04-12 1.241923 3.104428 6.816157 14.205228 27.778766 50.610143 90.410217
2026-04-19 1.153546 2.973381 6.683769 14.208530 28.247869 52.168460 94.333252
2026-04-26 1.084392 2.877663 6.613460 14.322849 28.916979 54.082112 98.900032
2026-05-03 1.000166 2.738285 6.443346 14.231934 29.203784 55.347202 102.413142